Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.  相似文献   

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MODE OVER CHINA IN 2009/2010 WINTER BASED ON GENERALIZED EQUILIBRIUM FEEDBACK ASSESSMENT (GEFA) METHOD     

江志红  吴燕珠  刘征宇  温娜  赵灿 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(2):121-130

By using the observed monthly mean data over 160 stations of China and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA) method, combined with the methods of EOF analysis, correlation and composite analysis, is used to explore the influence of different SST modes on a wintertime air temperature pattern in which it is cold in the northeast and warm in the southwest in China. The results show that the 2009/2010 winter air temperature oscillation mode between the northern and southern part of China is closely related to the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and its associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Exhibiting warming in Northeast China and cooling in Southwest China, the mode is significantly forced by the El Nio mode and the North Atlantic SSTA mode, which have three poles. Under the influence of SSTA modes, the surface northerly flow transported cold air to North and Northeast China, resulting in low temperatures in the regions. Meanwhile, the mid-latitude westerlies intensify and the polar cold air stays in high latitudes and cannot affect the Southwest China, resulting in the warming there.  相似文献   

环渤海葡萄涝渍指标构建及风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

毛红丹  霍治国  张蕾  杨建莹  孔瑞  李春晖  江梦圆 《应用气象学报》2022,33(1):92-103

以中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区为研究对象,利用1980-2019年研究区域内303个气象站逐日气象资料、葡萄发育期资料和葡萄涝渍灾情资料,基于相对湿润度方法构建葡萄逐日涝渍指数M5i,以历史灾情反演和灾变过程解析为主线,采用正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t分布区间估计等方法,构建适用于中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区的葡萄涝...  相似文献   

厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼(Branchiostoma belcheri)种群健康评价     

黄良敏  黎中宝  吝涛  李元跃  陈融斌  王家樵  陈强  李军 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(1):103-110

利用2009-2010年四个季度月用底栖生物抓斗式采样器捕获的文昌鱼样品,从其资源分布、年龄结构、生物学和生态学特征等方面对厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼的种群健康状况进行评价研究.结果表明:(1)文昌鱼种群资源分布衰减趋势明显,只在黄厝—前埔海区、小嶝岛—角屿海区和南线—十八线海区3个核心区还有分布,但资源密度低,分布范围狭小,而在鳄鱼屿实验区未能发现.(2)文昌鱼体重与体长之间关系:W=6.6895×10-4L3.1818;体长与体质量生长方程分别为:厶=65.63[1-e-0.68(t+032)],Wt=404.62[1-e-0.68(t+032)]3.1818;夏季、冬季航次的优势体长组分别为25-35mm和35-45mm,优势体重组分别为25-50mg和50-100mg;秋季低龄鱼较多,而冬季高龄鱼比例较高.(3)采用ELEFAN Ⅰ技术分析了厦门文昌鱼的Von Bertalanffy生长参数K、L∞、总死亡系数Z、自然死亡系数M和开发率E,发现其生长参数K值较大,自然死亡系数较高,开发率较大(0.69).综之,厦门自然保护区内的文昌鱼种群健康状况整体不佳,应注意资源保护,加强保护文昌鱼栖息地的底质和水质以及防止过度捕捞以实现其资源可持续利用.  相似文献   

锦州湾沉积物重金属污染特征及基于三角模糊数的生态风险评价     

王艳  刘汝海  于萍  许廖奇  王金玉 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(4):860-865

在锦州湾海域采集了20个表层沉积物样品, 测定Pb、Cr、Zn、Cu、As、Hg等6种重金属含量。数据分析表明Hg变差系数最大, 存在较重的污染。区域分布特征分析表明, 除了重金属Cr外, 其他五种重金属元素在沉积物中的含量均具有明显的由近岸向远岸逐渐降低的趋势, 说明陆源输入可能是锦州湾重金属污染的主要原因。通过聚类分析, 将研究海域分成三个区域, 采用三角模糊数处理和表征重金属含量, 对其进行生态风险评价(取可信度A=0.90), 结果表明重金属污染顺序是: Hg>Zn>Cu>Pb>As>Cr, 其中Hg和Zn在三个区都达到高污染程度。由于Hg极高的生物毒性, 使得该海域的生态风险都达到了极高的水平。  相似文献   

Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

CHO Kyoung-Ho  CHOI Jin-Yong  JEONG Sang-Hun  CHOI Jung-Woon  KWON Jae-Il  PARK Kwang-Soon 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(9):74-81

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).  相似文献   

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada     

Brickman D  Smith PC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(7):863-874

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.  相似文献   

我国抗震防灾研究的发展及其作用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭成久 《震灾防御技术》2007,2(2):212-217

我国是一个地震灾害严重的国家之一。为抵御地震对人民生命财产和国家经济的破坏,使得抗震防灾研究显得尤为必要。本文主要从工程角度,简要介绍了我国抗震防灾研究的历史、现状、前沿问题及未来发展,并且阐述了抗震防灾研究在我国社会主义经济建设中的重要性。  相似文献   

第四纪洞庭盆地安乡凹陷及西缘构造-沉积特征与环境演化     

柏道远  李长安  马铁球  王先辉  陈渡平 《西安地质学院学报》2010,(2):120-129

通过地表观察和钻孔资料,对洞庭盆地安乡凹陷及其西缘第四纪构造沉积特征和环境演化进行了研究,为江汉—洞庭盆地第四纪地质研究补充了新的资料。凹陷总体呈南北向,周边为正断裂。凹陷内第四系厚一般为100-220 m,最厚达300 m,自下而上依次为早更新世华田组、汨罗组,中更新世洞庭湖组,晚更新世坡头组和全新世湖冲积。第四系以砾石层、砂层为主,次为（含）粉砂质黏土、黏土,岩性、岩相横向变化大。安乡凹陷西缘（即太阳山隆起东缘）,呈自西向东缓倾的丘岗地貌。区内主要发育中更新世白沙井组,其中南部下部以砂、砾石层为主,上部为黏土;北部以粉砂质黏土沉积为主,下部可发育砂层。根据地貌、沉积及控凹断裂特征,重塑安乡凹陷及其西缘第四纪构造活动与环境演化过程：早更新世—中更新世早期,凹陷西边的北北东向周家店断裂伸展活动,安乡凹陷不均匀沉降,总体具河流和过流性湖泊环境并接受沅水沉积;同期凹陷西缘构造抬升,处于剥蚀的山地环境。中更新世中期断陷活动向西扩展,凹陷区为过流性湖泊环境;凹陷西缘地区转为河流（南部）和湖泊（北部）环境并接受沉积。中更新世晚期安乡凹陷及其西缘整体抬升并遭受剥蚀,凹陷西缘同时具有自西向东的掀斜。晚更新世安乡凹陷拗陷沉降,具河流和湖泊环境;同期凹陷西缘遭受剥蚀。晚更新世末受区域海平面下降影响,安乡凹陷遭受剥蚀。全新世安乡凹陷拗陷沉降,具泛滥平原之河流、湖泊环境。  相似文献   

板块运动对中国近海新生代盆地沉降及充填的控制作用     

李运振  邓运华  徐强  于兴河 《现代地质》2010,24(4)

太平洋板块、印度板块和欧亚板块的演化对中国近海沉积盆地的沉降及充填具有控制作用。根据地幔对流及地壳拉伸特征可将中国近海沉积盆地沉降类型划分为被动、主动和组合热沉降型3种。不同沉降类型分别具有不同的盆地结构,其中被动热沉降型以断陷为主,主动热沉降型以坳陷为主,组合热沉降型则是两种盆地结构的叠加或侧加。中国近海北部板内沉积盆地沉降类型以被动热沉降为主,远离海洋,受海侵影响较小,以陆相沉积体系为主;中部板缘沉积盆地沉降类型为被动侧加主动热沉降,水体整体较浅,坡折及三角洲发育规模小;南部板缘沉积盆地沉降类型也为被动侧加主动热沉降,水体整体较深,坡折及三角洲发育规模大。  相似文献